Come March 22, a naïf will have a face-off with a politically savvy defense lawyer in the race for the nation’s highest public office.They had their last TV debate on Sunday, the latter apparently being the winner.
Frank Hsieh, the defense lawyer turned politician, trapped his naïve Kuomintang rival Ma Ying-jeou in the latter’s campaign promise to form a common market across the Taiwan Strait. No matter how hard Ma tried to defend himself, Hsieh persisted in claiming the proposal is a prelude to the sellout of Taiwan.
A defense lawyer at his best, the Democratic Progressive Party presidential hopeful resorted to an easy-to-understand but irrefutable syllogism to make his point.Taiwan has to negotiate the deal with China; no deal is possible unless Taipei submits to Beijing’s “one China” principle; and therefore the common market is China’s for the making.The outcome of any such endeavor must be Beijing absorbing Taiwan into its “one China.”Is there anybody who believes the cross-Strait common market can get under way without Beijing’s nod?
Ma was on the defensive.As a matter of fact, the cross-Strait common market is a brainchild of his running mate Vincent Siew.It is a good idea and fully in line with the economic globalization.The problem is that it was not well thought out in the first place.Aside from the trouble that certainly will arise if Taiwan has to conform to every non-discrimination rule of the World Trade Organization, the proposed common market is predicated on China’s goodwill, which cannot be taken for granted.That might be the reason why the Kuomintang candidate for president had to back down in the two-hour debate, declaring China is not the only partner in the common market.A trade agreement with China is just a starter, he told the TV audience.Taiwan would reach and sign free trade agreements or similar arrangements with the United States, Japan, the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) and other countries to ultimately usher in the common market, one like the European Common Market which has finally evolved into the European Union in more than a half century and is expanding.
The backdown gave away Ma’s naivete in the face of Hsieh’s suave savviness.The defense lawyer consolidated his power base in largely agricultural central and south Taiwan and made swing voters question the credibility of his adversary.Middle class and well-educated voters wonder why Ma would call the Siew idea the cross-Strait common market, if what he said he wanted is a worldwide network.
Buoyed by Hsieh’s debate success, his spin doctors are now saying Ma’s lead in voter support has been slashed to a mere 7 percent despite a China Times poll estimating the gap at 27 percent. They believe Hsieh may even come from behind to beat Ma after a one million-strong island-wide rally on Sunday to protest against China’s anti-secession law, which triggers an automatic invasion of Taiwan, if independence is declared in Taiwan.An invasion wouldn’t be an idle threat, if a referendum on Taiwan’s admission to the United Nations in the name Taiwan, which will be held alongside the presidential election, were adopted.Beijing considers it a move toward de jure independence, albeit the referendum stands no chance of public approval.
（本文刊載於97.03.11China Post第4版民意論壇，本文代表作者個人意見）
