Quite a number of countries around the world seem seriously worried about President Chen Shui-bian's master plan to call a referendum on Taiwan's joining the United Nations under its own name. Well, the People's Republic of China certainly is very much concerned, for it considers Chen's move another step forward to Taiwan's de jure independence. The United States is fretting over Chen's reneging on his open, twice-made promise not to hold that referendum. Chen made that promise in two inaugural addresses in 2000 and 2004. In fact, Washington is reported to have been so enraged as to cancel a planned sale of F-16C/D fighters to Taiwan. Meanwhile, the European Union is issuing a stern warning against President Chen. European nations want him to act "sensibly and responsibly."
To the chagrin of all these countries, President Chen has just sent an application to the United Nations headquarters for acceding to the world organization as a full member under the name of Taiwan. The application has been filed months before the referendum will take place. Chen's ruling Democratic Progressive Party has scheduled the referendum to be called alongside one of the two major elections early next year. Time permitting, it will be held at the same time as the election of a new Legislative Yuan on Jan. 12. If not, it will take place together with the presidential election slated for March 22.
But there should be no cause for worry or concern.
Everybody knows Taiwan can never be admitted to the United Nations under any name. Taipei has, for over a decade, knocked on the door of the world body, from which it was ousted in 1971. In fact, Chen's application won't even be accepted and processed. Let's presume the U.N. General Assembly wanted to act on the application, a one-in-a billion chance. China would abort the deliberation without any difficulty. Let's presume further the General Assembly approved the application. China, a permanent member on the Security Council, could veto the General Assembly decision to let in Taiwan.
Of course, President Chen knows that full well. He doesn't care whether Taiwan can join the United Nations. He cares about how his move can be translated into votes for candidates of his party in the January and March elections and, in particular,his party's victory in the presidential race on which hinges his fate after next May 20. Although he wasn't indicted with his wife for corruption, prosecutors made it clear he would be leaving office.
Beijing has a Taiwan phobia. Every action President Chen takes is interpreted as a move towards Taiwan independence or separatism. We must remind Chinese leaders that whatever he may do will come to nought anyway. So long as China has the veto power, Taiwan has no chance whatsoever to join the United Nations. The referendum? The Chinese should deem it a farce. They should sit back to enjoy it, knowing all the time it would end to their amused satisfaction.
The referendum may be called. But whether it will be passed is open to doubt. Chen called two referendums alongside the presidential election of 2004 to boost his odds for re-election. Neither was valid, for less than half of the electorate took part, though seven out of every ten eligible voters went to the polls. In the end, he was reelected, thanks to sympathy votes cast on the day following a mystery-shrouded shooting which was rumored as an assassination attempt on him orchestrated by Beijing. Do not underestimate the intelligence of Taiwan's voters. They may choose to stay away from the referendum on a non-issue like Taiwan's accession to the United Nations under its name.
And even if the referendum were adopted, what change would it make? All it could prove would be that the people of Taiwan want their country to join the United Nations under that name. Is there any country in the world that does not know that?
Washington, on the other hand, has reason to be angry, because President Chen has taken back his word. President George W. Bush shouldn't be too angry, though, for it's not the first time Chen has reneged. Remember how Chen maneuvered to have the National Unification Council "cease to function" only early last year? Chen promised Bush not to scrap the said council, which was rendered defunct. And Bush can do little to whip Chen into line, now that the latter has less than ten months of his second and last term left.
We are certain that European powers -- including the United Kingdom, Germany, France and Italy -- are simply humoring China. Beijing wants them to show concern. So they are warning Taipei to gratify the Chinese, fully convinced that the admonition would fall on deaf ears and Taiwan would not be offended. They are indulging the Chinese without paying any price. The European Union acts like a doting mother trying to soothe a crying toddler throwing a tantrum.
The right reaction to President Chen's referendum plan is to ignore it. Clear-thinking men and women in Taiwan regard it as a stupid referendum. It's an insult to their Homo sapiens intelligence to be asked to voice yes or no on the question of Taiwan's U.N. bid. Internationally, what Chen is doing should be interpreted as a petty megalomaniac at his wits' end taking his last sleepwalk.
（本文刊載於96.08.28 China Post第4版，本文代表作者個人意見）
