It certainly is very ungentlemanly of Costa Rican President Oscar Arias Chavez to accuse Taiwan of “being stingy with aid to its handful of allies.”He switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing on June 6 probably because China was more generous in offering financial assistance.As a matter of fact, Beijing is said to have given US$70 million in aid and promised a debt forgiveness package in exchange for San Jose cutting official ties with Taipei.President Chen Shui-bian said resignedly Taiwan couldn’t match China.
It’s time for President Chen to call a halt to Taiwan’s “checkbook” diplomacy, one conducted through writing large checks to buy diplomatic allies in the name of foreign assistance.A clever man as he is, Chen knows full well it won’t work but everybody knows the president will keep on employing what has come to be known among political pundits in Taipei as “a fool’s diplomacy.”They believe Taipei is a fool pouring hard-earned hard currency on faithless friends.
The rationale for Taipei to act wittingly like a fool is that Taiwan has to have a certain number of countries – no matter how small and insignificant they may be – which recognize it as an independent, sovereign state.That number varies from one international law expert to another, of course.Some set it at 30. Others require at least 50, which is still less than one third of the countries the world over.With Costa Rica gone, Taiwan now has only 24 diplomatic allies.Taipei wants to get at least six new friends to make the lowest quorum.That’s why the president has to continue to “strive for” diplomacy.
Inasmuch as international law is concerned, however, diplomatic recognition isn’t a sine qua non for an independent, sovereign state.It is better for an independent, sovereign state to have countries around the world recognize it as such, when it conducts foreign relations. But it doesn’t matter much whether that state has more or fewer countries which want to keep diplomatic relations with it so long as it is strong enough to survive.The Soviet Union and Francisco Franco’s Spain at one time had fewer diplomatic allies than Taiwan now has.They have survived.
There is only one vital requirement to survive as an independent, sovereign state: It has to be fit to survive.Chiang Kai-shek reorganized his routed troops into a strong defense force and paved the way for Taiwan’s modernization with U.S. assistance.Taiwan survived normalization of relations between Tokyo and Beijing in 1972.His son Chiang Ching-kuo started democratization, working the economic miracle of the twentieth century.Taiwan survived Jimmy Carter’s switch of diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979.They both made Taiwan fit to survive as an independent, sovereign state.Despite the absence of diplomatic relations, Taiwan has enjoyed a cordial and friendly relationship with Japan and the United States.None of the member states of the European Union have official ties with Taiwan, but that does not affect their economic and cultural interchanges.
Foreign ministry officials fear Arias’ defection may have a domino effect in Central America, where all its countries except Costa Rica still remain loyal to Taipei.It may.Panama and Nicaragua may defect.Honduras has no plan to recognize Beijing “in the short term.”El Salvador wants to set up diplomatic ties with China, if Beijing does not insist on its derecognizing Taiwan.But if all of them made a switch to Beijing, how much would Taiwan suffer in its all-important “substantial” relations with the rest of the world?Yes, there would be inconveniences, but the substantial relations will suffer little, if any, substantially adverse impact.The only loss may be in the chances of President Chen and his successor to visit Central America with the trappings of a head of state and in the number of countries that will speak up for Taiwan when it tries to accede to the United Nations and other world bodies.
The two Chiangs never made state visits abroad.Nor did they try to get Taiwan back into the United Nations and its affiliated organizations.It was an unprecedented diplomatic setback to be ousted from the United Nations in 1971.Chiang Kai-shek bit the bullet to continue to build up Taiwan as a trading power.So did Chiang Ching-kuo in 1979 when Uncle Sam derecognized Taiwan.Neither of them ever thought of personal diplomacy to keep or win friends of convenience.An increasingly small number of diplomatic allies did not prevent Taiwan from making progress in every field of human endeavor.
It is President Lee Teng-hui who committed himself to increasing Taiwan’s diplomatic allies.He wanted to “go out” to show the flag himself wherever possible.He also encouraged government leaders to “go out” of Taiwan to make it more internationally visible. That policy has continued under President Chen, who regularly and routinely gets out of country to tour countries with which Taiwan still maintains diplomatic relations and considers his layovers in its non-diplomatic allies on the way to and back from his trips to be great accomplishments of his personal diplomacy.On each trip, Chen has to promise to write larger checks to keep the host countries satisfied.He is ready to offer as much as he can to win a dubious diplomatic ally.
Chen has to step down in May next year.His successor should resume dialogue between Taipei and Beijing to attain a modus vivendi that alone will end Taiwan’s quandary in a fool’s diplomacy.Admittedly, it is extremely hard to achieve that temporary practical arrangement.But Beijing is ready to talk – even with Chen, if he accepts what is called the consensus of 1992, under which both sides of the Taiwan Strait acknowledge there is but one China, whose connotation can be individually and orally expressed.The consensus, in fact, is a modus vivendi.
All that Taiwan has to do is to accept that modus vivendi to negotiate another modus vivendi to end the diplomatic rat race between Taipei and Beijing that benefits no one but politicians of a small number of small countries.
（本文刊載於96.06.11 China Post第4版，本文代表作者個人意見）
